Friday, April 11, 2014

Problem with central banks making it up as they go along

I highly recommend this speech that Dallas Fed President and FOMC voting member Richard Fisher gave in Hong Kong.  I think he does a good job of explaining the reality of central banking.  It really boils down to making it up as they go along.

The problem with this is the risk of getting sucked into a hyperinflation feedback loop.   If you are wondering around and making things up as you go along, and happen to step into the hyperinflation death spiral, you will not be able to just step back out.

The politicians, with their large debt and deficit spending, are really a key part of the setup for hyperinflation.   I think the politicians and central bankers do not yet understand hyperinflation well enough to take the difficult choices needed to avoid stepping into the hyperinflation trap.